The outcome of the elections in Germany could have a significant impact on the Schengen area, especially in terms of migration policies and border controls. Some of the main effects could be:

Possible tightening of border controls: the victory of the CDU and the advance of the far-right (AfD) suggest that the future coalition government could opt for stricter policies on immigration and security. Germany has reinstated controls at its borders with Poland, the Czech Republic and Austria due to an increase in irregular immigration. A more conservative government could tighten these controls and even extend them indefinitely.

Pressure on Schengen countries: if Germany implements tighter restrictions at its borders, this could generate a domino effect on other Schengen member countries, which could do the same to prevent the increase in transit migrants.
France, Austria and Denmark have already imposed internal Schengen controls in recent years, and the outcome in Germany could reinforce this trend.

Reforms within the EU and the Migration Pact: Germany is key in negotiations on the EU’s Migration and Asylum Pact, which seeks to distribute the migration burden among member states. A CDU government could align Germany with other countries calling for tighter borders and reduced refugee quotas, which could complicate agreements within the EU.

Impact on mobility within Schengen: if internal border controls become permanent in Germany and other countries follow suit, free movement within the Schengen area could be weakened.
This would affect not only migrants, but also European citizens and cross-border workers, creating delays and difficulties in transit.

Relations with other Schengen countries: Germany could seek greater cooperation with countries such as France and Italy to strengthen the protection of the EU’s external borders. At the same time, it could have tensions with countries such as Spain and Greece if refugee relocation rules are tightened.

In short, the new German government will play a key role in defining the future of the Schengen space, either by strengthening its structure or by promoting restrictions that could weaken it.

Still, the EES, ETIAS – SEIAV program remains on track on the way to strengthening the external borders of the Schengen space, starting around mid-2025.